Published in

The Royal Society, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 1614(368), p. 20120198, 2013

DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0198

Links

Tools

Export citation

Search in Google Scholar

Uncovering epidemiological dynamics in heterogeneous host populations using phylogenetic methods

Journal article published in 2013 by Tanja Stadler ORCID, Sebastian Bonhoeffer
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

Full text: Download

Green circle
Preprint: archiving allowed
Green circle
Postprint: archiving allowed
Red circle
Published version: archiving forbidden
Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

Host population structure has a major influence on epidemiological dynamics. However, in particular for sexually transmitted diseases, quantitative data on population contact structure are hard to obtain. Here, we introduce a new method that quantifies host population structure based on phylogenetic trees, which are obtained from pathogen genetic sequence data. Our method is based on a maximum-likelihood framework and uses a multi-type branching process, under which each host is assigned to a type (subpopulation). In a simulation study, we show that our method produces accurate parameter estimates for phylogenetic trees in which each tip is assigned to a type, as well for phylogenetic trees in which the type of the tip is unknown. We apply the method to a Latvian HIV-1 dataset, quantifying the impact of the intravenous drug user epidemic on the heterosexual epidemic (known tip states), and identifying superspreader dynamics within the men-having-sex-with-men epidemic (unknown tip states).