Progression rates of Alzheimer's disease (AD) vary considerably, and they are particularly difficult to predict in patients with mild cognitive impairment. We performed a prospective multicenter cohort study in 186 patients with possible or probable AD, mostly with presenile onset. In a cross-sectional analysis at entry, impairment of glucose metabolism in temporoparietal or frontal association areas measured with positron emission tomography was significantly associated with dementia severity, clinical classification as possible versus probable AD, presence of multiple cognitive deficits and history of progression. A prospective longitudinal analysis showed a significant association between initial metabolic impairment and subsequent clinical deterioration. In patients with mild cognitive deficits at entry, the risk of deterioration was up to 4.7 times higher if the metabolism was severely impaired than with mild or absent metabolic impairment. Copyrightz1999S.KargerAG, Basel