Dissemin is shutting down on January 1st, 2025

Published in

National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 1(117), p. 29-36, 2019

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1908513117

Links

Tools

Export citation

Search in Google Scholar

Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO <sub>2</sub> emissions

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

Full text: Download

Red circle
Preprint: archiving forbidden
Green circle
Postprint: archiving allowed
Red circle
Published version: archiving forbidden
Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

CO 2 emissions are of global concern because of climate change. China has become the largest CO 2 emitter in the world and presently accounts for 30% of global emissions. Here, we analyze the major drivers of energy-related CO 2 emissions in China from 1978 when the reform and opening-up policy was launched. We find that 1) there has been a 6-fold increase in energy-related CO 2 emissions, which was driven primarily (176%) by economic growth followed by population growth (16%), while the effects of energy intensity (−79%) and carbon intensity (−13%) slowed the growth of carbon emissions over most of this period; 2) energy-related CO 2 emissions are positively related to per capita gross domestic product (GDP), population growth rate, carbon intensity, and energy intensity; and 3) a portfolio of command-and-control policies affecting the drivers has altered the total emission trend. However, given the major role of China in global climate change mitigation, significant future reductions in China’s CO 2 emissions will require transformation toward low-carbon energy systems.