Published in

Hindawi, Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases, (2011), p. 1-10, 2011

DOI: 10.1155/2011/267049

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Pathogens, Social Networks, and the Paradox of Transmission Scaling

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Understanding the scaling of transmission is critical to predicting how infectious diseases will affect populations of different sizes and densities. The two classic “mean-field” epidemic models—either assuming density-dependent or frequency-dependent transmission—make predictions that are discordant with patterns seen in either within-population dynamics or across-population comparisons. In this paper, we propose that the source of this inconsistency lies in the greatly simplifying “mean-field” assumption of transmission within a fully-mixed population. Mixing in real populations is more accurately represented by a network of contacts, with interactions and infectious contacts confined to the local social neighborhood. We use network models to show that density-dependent transmission on heterogeneous networks often leads to apparent frequency dependency in the scaling of transmission across populations of different sizes. Network-methodology allows us to reconcile seemingly conflicting patterns of within- and across-population epidemiology.