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Nature Research, Nature Communications, 1(6), 2015

DOI: 10.1038/ncomms6989

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Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

Journal article published in 2015 by Deepak K. Ray, James S. Gerber, Graham K. MacDonald ORCID, Paul C. West
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for similar to 13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (similar to 32-39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability.