Published in

American Heart Association, Stroke, 3(48), p. 726-732, 2017

DOI: 10.1161/strokeaha.116.015770

Links

Tools

Export citation

Search in Google Scholar

Prediction of Early Recurrent Thromboembolic Event and Major Bleeding in Patients With Acute Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation by a Risk Stratification Schema

Journal article published in 2017 by Maurizio Paciaroni, Giancarlo Agnelli, Valeria Caso, Georgios Tsivgoulis, Karen L. Furie, Prasanna Tadi, Cecilia Becattini, Nicola Falocci, Marialuisa Zedde, Azmil H. Abdul-Rahim, Kennedy R. Lees, Andrea Alberti, Michele Venti, Monica Acciarresi, Cataldo D’Amore and other authors.
This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.
This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.

Full text: Unavailable

Green circle
Preprint: archiving allowed
Orange circle
Postprint: archiving restricted
Red circle
Published version: archiving forbidden
Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

Background and Purposes— This study was designed to derive and validate a score to predict early ischemic events and major bleedings after an acute ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. Methods— The derivation cohort consisted of 854 patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation included in prospective series between January 2012 and March 2014. Older age (hazard ratio 1.06 for each additional year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00–1.11) and severe atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 2.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.08–2.87) were predictors for ischemic outcome events (stroke, transient ischemic attack, and systemic embolism) at 90 days from acute stroke. Small lesions (≤1.5 cm) were inversely correlated with both major bleeding (hazard ratio, 0.39; P =0.03) and ischemic outcome events (hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.30–1.00). We assigned to age ≥80 years 2 points and between 70 and 79 years 1 point; ischemic index lesion >1.5 cm, 1 point; severe atrial enlargement, 1 point (ALESSA score). A logistic regression with the receiver-operating characteristic graph procedure (C statistic) showed an area under the curve of 0.697 (0.632–0.763; P =0.0001) for ischemic outcome events and 0.585 (0.493–0.678; P =0.10) for major bleedings. Results— The validation cohort consisted of 994 patients included in prospective series between April 2014 and June 2016. Logistic regression with the receiver-operating characteristic graph procedure showed an area under the curve of 0.646 (0.529–0.763; P =0.009) for ischemic outcome events and 0.407 (0.275–0.540; P =0.14) for hemorrhagic outcome events. Conclusions— In acute stroke patients with atrial fibrillation, high ALESSA scores were associated with a high risk of ischemic events but not of major bleedings.