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Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium

Journal article published in 2009 by Richard S. J. Tol, Sebastian Wagner ORCID
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Abstract

We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder period, just like Zhang et al. (Clim Change 76:459–477, 2006) found for China. This relationship weakens in the industrialized era, and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. As the correlation is negative and weakening, it appears that global warming would not lead to an increase in violent conflict in temperature climates.