Abstract CDKN2A-p16-Leiden mutation carriers have a 20% to 25% risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Better understanding of the natural course of PDAC might allow the surveillance protocol to be improved. The aims of the study were to evaluate the role of cystic precursor lesions in the development of PDAC and to assess the growth rate. In 2000, a surveillance program was initiated, consisting of annual MRI in carriers of a CDKN2A-p16-Leiden mutation. The study cohort included 204 (42% male) patients. Cystic precursor lesions were found in 52 (25%) of 204 mutation carriers. Five (9.7%) of 52 mutation carriers with cystic lesions and 8 (7.0%) of 114 mutation carriers without cystic lesions developed PDAC (P = 0.56). Three of 6 patients with a cystic lesion of ≥10 mm developed PDAC. The median size of all incident PDAC detected between 9 and 12 months since the previous normal MRI was 15 mm, suggesting an annual growth rate of about 15 mm/year. In conclusion, our findings show that patients with and without a cystic lesions have a similar risk of PDAC. However, cystic precursor lesions between 10 and 20 mm increase the risk of PDAC substantially. In view of the large size of the screen-detected tumors, a shorter interval of screening might be recommended for all patients. Cancer Prev Res; 11(9); 551–6. ©2018 AACR.