We present a data-based model for low mode asymmetry in low gas-fill hohlraum experiments on the National Ignition Facility {NIF [Moses et al., Fusion Sci. Technol. 69, 1 (2016)]} laser. This model is based on the hypothesis that the asymmetry in these low fill hohlraums is dominated by the hydrodynamics of the expanding, low density, high-Z (gold or uranium) “bubble,” which occurs where the intense outer cone laser beams hit the high-Z hohlraum wall. We developed a simple model which states that the implosion symmetry becomes more oblate as the high-Z bubble size becomes large compared to the hohlraum radius or the capsule size becomes large compared to the hohlraum radius. This simple model captures the trends that we see in data that span much of the parameter space of interest for NIF ignition experiments. We are now using this model as a constraint on new designs for experiments on the NIF.