Springer (part of Springer Nature), Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 5(13), p. 1455-1490
A vulnerability model capable of providing the probabilistic distribution of loss ratio for a set of intensity measure levels is a fundamental tool to perform earthquake loss estimation and seismic risk assessment. The aim of the study presented herein is to develop a set of vulnerability functions for 48 reinforced concrete building typologies, categorized based on the date of construction (which has a direct relation with the design code level), number of storeys (height of the building) and seismic zonation (which affects the design of the buildings). An analytical methodology was adopted, in which thousands of nonlinear dynamic analyses were performed on 2D moment resisting frames with masonry infills, using one hundred ground motion records that are compatible, to the extent possible, with the Portuguese tectonic environment. The generation of the structural models was carried out using the probabilistic distribution of a set of geometric and material properties, compiled based on information gathered from a large sample of drawings and technical specifications of typical Portuguese reinforced concrete buildings, located in various regions in the country. Various key aspects in the development of the vulnerability model are investigated herein, such as the selection of the ground motion records, the modelling of the infilled frames, the definition of the damage criterion and the evaluation of dynamic (i.e. period of vibration) and structural (i.e. displacement and base shear capacity) parameters of the frames. A statistical bootstrap method is demonstrated to estimate the variability of the loss ratio at each intensity measure level, allowing the estimation of the mean, as well as 10 and 90 % percentile vulnerability curves.