A procedure for estimation of probabilistic fatigue S–N curves for notched structural components is described. Plain material strain–life data is used to identify a statistical Weibull strain–life model and, using an adequate elastoplastic analysis, material strain–life probabilistic curves are converted into probabilistic stress–life curves of the structural component. The performance of the proposed model is illustrated by a practical example of a riveted shear splice, from a Portuguese railway bridge, for which experimental resistance data is available. A simplified elastoplastic analysis based on the Neuber and the Glinka rules are used, supported by the results of an elastic finite element analysis of the riveted connection. The paper demonstrates the success of the proposed probabilistic model since it correlates satisfactorily with the available experimental data for the riveted connection. The achieved results confirm the proposed probabilistic model as well suited for notched structural components with a whole fatigue life dominated by crack initiation.