PurposeRecently, a new class of fatigue crack growth models based on elastoplastic stress‐strain histories at the crack tip region and strain‐life fatigue damage models have been proposed. The fatigue crack propagation is understood as a process of continuous crack initializations, over elementary material blocks, which may be governed by strain‐life data of the plain material. The residual stresses developed at the crack tip play a central role in these models, since they are used to assess the actual crack driving force, taking into account mean stresses and loading sequential effects. The UniGrow model fits this particular class of fatigue crack propagation models. The purpose of this paper is to propose an extension of the UniGrow model to derive probabilistic fatigue crack propagation data, in particular the derivation of the P–da/dN–ΔK–R fields.Design/methodology/approachAn existing deterministic fatigue crack propagation model, based on local strain‐life data is first assessed. In particular, an alternative methodology for residual stress computation is proposed, based on elastoplastic finite element analysis, in order to overcome inconsistencies found in the analytical approximate approaches often used in literature. Then, using probabilistic strain‐life fields, a probabilistic output for the fatigue crack propagation growth rates is generated. A new probabilistic fatigue field is also proposed to take mean stress effects into account, using the Smith‐Watson‐Topper (SWT) damage parameter. The proposed models are assessed using experimental data available for two materials representative from old Portuguese bridges.FindingsA new method to generate probabilistic fatigue crack propagation rates (P–da/dN–ΔK–R fields) is proposed and verified using puddle iron from old Portuguese bridges, usually characterized by significant scatter in fatigue properties. Also, a new probabilistic fatigue field for plain material is proposed to deal with mean stress effects.Originality/valueA relation between the P–ε–N and the P–da/dN–ΔK–R fields is firstly proposed in this research. Furthermore, a new P–SWT–N field is proposed to deal with mean stress effects.