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Elsevier, Quaternary Science Reviews, (107), p. 1-10

DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.019

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A perspective on model-data surface temperature comparison at the Last Glacial Maximum

Journal article published in 2014 by J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves ORCID
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Abstract

We review progress in model and proxy-based reconstruction of the surface temperature field of the Last Glacial Maximum. Both approaches have converged towards a climate state substantially colder than the present day, with the temperature anomaly field showing strong polar amplification and land-sea contrast. The magnitudes of the large-scale changes are increasingly well-constrained, with a recent model-data synthesis generating a value of 4 °C, which suggests a moderate equilibrium climate sensitivity of about 2.5 °C. However, significant areas of uncertainty remain, particularly in the tropical sea surface temperature change. At finer sub-continental spatial scales, there is limited agreement between models and data regarding the patterns of change.