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Scientific Research Publishing, American Journal of Climate Change, 04(02), p. 237-253, 2013

DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2013.24024

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Mean and Interannual Variability of Maize and Soybean in Brazil under Global Warming Conditions

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Brazil is responsible for 27% of the world production of soybeans and 7% of maize. Mato Grosso and Para states in Brazil are among the largest producer. The viability to the cultivation of maize (Zea mays) and soybeans (Glycine max), for future climate scenarios (2070-2100, GHG) is evaluated based on crop modeling (DSSAT) forced by observational data and regional climate simulations (HadRM3). The results demonstrated that a substantial reduction in the yield in particular for maize may be expected for the end of the 21 st century. Distinct results are found for soybeans. By apply-ing the A2 climate changes scenario, soybean yield rises by up top 60% assuming optimum soil treatment and no water stress. However, by analyzing the inter-annual variability of crop yields for both maize and soybean, could be demon-strated larger year-to-year fluctuations under greenhouse warming conditions as compared to current conditions, leading to very low productivity by the end of the 21 st century. Therefore, these Brazilian states do not appear to be economi-cally suitable for a future cultivation of maize and soybeans. Improved adaptation measures and soil management may however partially alleviate the negative climate change effect.