AbstractUsually costs of bio‐based products are compared to those of their fossil counterparts, most often made from crude oil. This paper adds new insights into this kind of comparison and provides approaches as to how future innovations in biorefineries and bio‐based chemicals can be compared to commercial fossil alternatives. The shift to alternative carbon sources will lead to higher costs in the short term. However, expected changes in the crude oil market and regulatory effects will cause rising costs of fossil chemicals in the near future. This work also provides strategies for implementing increased prices.