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IOP Publishing, Environmental Research Letters, 4(7), p. 044012, 2012

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044012

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Useful decadal climate prediction at regional scales? A look at the ENSEMBLES stream 2 decadal hindcasts

Journal article published in 2012 by Da A. MacLeod ORCID, Cyril Caminade, Andy P. Morse
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Decadal climate prediction is a branch of climate modelling with the theoretical potential to anticipate climate impacts years in advance. Here we present analysis of the ENSEMBLES decadal simulations, the first multi-model decadal hindcasts, focusing on the skill in prediction of temperature and precipitation—important for impact prediction. Whilst previous work on this dataset has focused on the skill in multi-year averages, we focus here on the skill in prediction at smaller timescales. Considering annual and seasonal averages, we look at correlations, potential predictability and multi-year trend correlations.