Dissemin is shutting down on January 1st, 2025

Published in

MDPI, Vaccines, 3(8), p. 521, 2020

DOI: 10.3390/vaccines8030521

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Mathematical Approach to Estimating the Main Epidemiological Parameters of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) severely threatens the swine industry worldwide, given its spread and the absence of an available licensed vaccine, and has caused severe economic losses. Its persistence in wild boar (WB), longer than in domestic pig farms, and the knowledge gaps in ASF epidemiology hinder ASF virus (ASFV) eradication. Even in areas where disease is effectively controlled and ASFV is no longer detected, declaring eradication is difficult as seropositive WBs may still be detected. The aim of this work was to estimate the main ASF epidemiological parameters specific for the north of Sardinia, Italy. The estimated basic (R0) and effective (Re) reproduction numbers demonstrate that the ASF epidemic is declining and under control with an R0 of 1.139 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.123–1.153) and Re of 0.802 (95% CI = 0.612–0.992). In the last phases of an epidemic, these estimates are crucial tools for identifying the intensity of interventions required to definitively eradicate the disease. This approach is useful to understand if and when the detection of residual seropositive WB is no longer associated with any further ASFV circulation.