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Springer (part of Springer Nature), Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 1-2(122), p. 85-96

DOI: 10.1007/s00704-014-1272-2

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Cyclones and their possible changes in the Arctic by the end of the twenty first century from regional climate model Simulations

Journal article published in 2014 by Mirseid Akperov, Igor Mokhov, Annette Rinke ORCID, Klaus Dethloff, Heidrun Matthes
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Abstract

Characteristics of cyclones (frequency, intensity and size) and their changes in the Arctic region in a warmer climate have been analyzed with the use of the HIRHAM regional climate model simulations with SRES-A1B anthro-pogenic scenario for the twenty first century. The focus was on cyclones for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. The present-day cyclonic characteristics from HIRHAM simulations are in general agreement with those from ERA–40 reanalysis data. Differences noted for the frequency of cyclones are related with different spatial resolution in the model simulations and reanaly-sis data. Potential future changes in cyclone characteristics at the end of the twenty first century have been analyzed. According to the model simulations, the frequency of cyclones is increasing in warm seasons and decreasing in cold seasons for a warmer climate in the twenty first century, but these changes are statistically insignificant. Noticeable changes were detected for the intensity and size of cyclones for the both seasons. Significant increase was found for the frequency of weak cyclones during cold season. Further, a general increase in the frequency of small cyclones was calculated in cold seasons, while its frequency decreases in warm seasons.