Significance This study identifies a mechanism to generate atmospheric variability on near-annual and subannual timescales. Responding nonlinearly to both the El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the annual cycle in sea surface temperatures, the atmosphere develops a wide range of deterministic spectral peaks and corresponding spatial patterns. It is demonstrated that the resulting deterministic variability, which projects onto one of the major modes of East Asian Monsoon variability, exhibits similar predictability as ENSO.