American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Research Letters, 7(41), p. 2312-2318, 2014
DOI: 10.1002/2014gl059465
Full text: Download
Earthquake ruptures stop when they encounter barriers impeding further propagation. These barriers can theoretically originate from changes of geometry or nature of the seismic faults, or from a strong lowering of the tectonic stresses, typically due to the occurrence of a recent major earthquake. We show here that this latter mechanism can be ineffective at stopping rupture expansion: the 2013/11/17 magnitude 7.8 Scotia sea earthquake has propagated into a 100 km-long zone already ruptured 10 years ago by a magnitude 7.6 earthquake. Given the plate velocities between Scotia and Antarctic plates (8-9 mm/yr), simple recurrence models would have predicted that the segment affected by the 2003 earthquake could not be re-ruptured by a major earthquake during several hundreds of years. This earthquake pair indicates that the variations of the tectonic stress during the seismic history of the fault are small compared to the stresses dynamically generated by a large earthquake.