European Geosciences Union, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 6(12), p. 2065-2076, 2012
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-12-2065-2012
Full text: Download
We present a study on expected wind wave sever-ity changes in the Adriatic Sea for the period 2070–2099 and their impact on extremes. To do so, the phase-averaged spec-tral wave model SWAN is forced using wind fields computed by the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-CLM, the climate version of the COSMO meteorological model downscaled from a global climate model running un-der the IPCC-A1B emission scenario. Namely, the adopted wind fields are given with a horizontal resolution of 14 km and 40 vertical levels, and they are prepared by the Italian Aerospace Research Centre (CIRA). Firstly, in order to in-fer the wave model accuracy in predicting seasonal variabil-ity and extreme events, SWAN results are validated against a control simulation, which covers the period 1965–1994. In particular, numerical predictions of the significant wave height H s are compared against available in-situ data. Fur-ther, a statistical analysis is carried out to estimate changes on wave storms and extremes during the simulated periods (con-trol and future scenario simulations). In particular, the gener-alized Pareto distribution is used to predict changes of storm peak H s for frequent and rare storms in the Adriatic Sea. Finally, Borgman's theory is applied to estimate the spatial pattern of the expected maximum wave height H max during a storm, both for the present climate and that of the future scenario. Results show a future wave climate in the Adriatic Sea milder than the present climate, even though increases of wave severity can occur locally.