Bond wire fatigue is one of the dominant failure mechanisms in IGBT modules. However, the bond wire lifetime is not easily predictable and measurable to date due to several challenges. To overcome this challenge, this paper proposes a Monte Carlo based analysis method to predict the lifetime consumption of bond wires in a Photovoltaic (PV) inverter under long-term operation. The parameter distributions of IGBTs due to manufacturing variation and the annual stress profiles due to intermittent nature of solar irradiance and ambient temperature are taken into consideration. The proposed method enables a more realistic lifetime prediction with a specified confidence level compared to the state-of-the-art approaches. A study case on IGBT modules in a 10 kW three-phase PV inverter demonstrates the procedure and the results of the analysis. Finally, the lifetime distribution of bond wires permits to estimate the risk of unreliability of a single IGBT in a Photovoltaic (PV) inverter.