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IOP Publishing, Environmental Research Letters, 4(10), p. 044011, 2015

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044011

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Three centuries of dual pressure from land use and climate change on the biosphere

Journal article published in 2015 by Sebastian Ostberg ORCID, Sibyll Schaphoff ORCID, Wolfgang Lucht, Dieter Gerten ORCID
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Green circle
Preprint: archiving allowed
Green circle
Postprint: archiving allowed
Green circle
Published version: archiving allowed
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Abstract

Human land use and anthropogenic climate change (CC) are placing mounting pressure on natural ecosystems worldwide, with impacts on biodiversity, water resources, nutrient and carbon cycles. Here, we present a quantitative macro-scale comparative analysis of the separate and joint dual impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and CC on the terrestrial biosphere during the last ca. 300 years, based on simulations with a dynamic global vegetation model and an aggregated metric of simultaneous biogeochemical, hydrological and vegetation-structural shifts. We find that by the beginning of the 21st century LULCC and CC have jointly caused major shifts on more than 90% of all areas now cultivated, corresponding to 26% of the land area. CC has exposed another 26% of natural ecosystems to moderate or major shifts. Within three centuries, the impact of LULCC on landscapes has increased 13-fold. Within just one century, CC effects have caught up with LULCC effects.