Published in

American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Research Letters, 2(42), p. 518-525

DOI: 10.1002/2014gl062398

Links

Tools

Export citation

Search in Google Scholar

Detecting changes in marine responses to ENSO from 850 to 2100 C.E.: Insights from the ocean carbon cycle

Journal article published in 2015 by Kathrin M. Keller, Fortunat Joos ORCID, Flavio Lehner, Christoph C. Raible
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

Full text: Download

Green circle
Preprint: archiving allowed
Green circle
Postprint: archiving allowed
Orange circle
Published version: archiving restricted
Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

It is open whether El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies under climate change and how potential changes in the marine system are detectable. Here, differences in the influence of ENSO on biogeochemical tracers, pH, productivity, and ocean temperature are analyzed in a continuous 850–2100 CE simulation with the Community Earth System Model. The modeled variance in ENSO amplitude is significantly higher during the Maunder Minimum cold than during the 21st century warm period. ENSO-driven anomalies in global air-sea CO2 flux and marine productivity are two to three times lower and ocean tracer anomalies are generally weaker in the 21st century. Significant changes are detectable in both surface and subsurface waters and are earlier verifiable and more widespread for carbon cycle tracers than for temperature. This suggests that multi-tracer observations of both physical and biogeochemical variables would enable an earlier detection of potential changes in marine ENSO responses than temperature-only data.