Synthesis prediction is a key accelerator for the rapid design of advanced materials. However, determining synthesis variables such as the choice of precursor materials is challenging for inorganic materials because the sequence of reactions during heating is not well understood. In this work, we use a knowledge base of 29,900 solid-state synthesis recipes, text-mined from the scientific literature, to automatically learn which precursors to recommend for the synthesis of a novel target material. The data-driven approach learns chemical similarity of materials and refers the synthesis of a new target to precedent synthesis procedures of similar materials, mimicking human synthesis design. When proposing five precursor sets for each of 2654 unseen test target materials, the recommendation strategy achieves a success rate of at least 82%. Our approach captures decades of heuristic synthesis data in a mathematical form, making it accessible for use in recommendation engines and autonomous laboratories.