We present a privacy-friendly early-detection framework to identify students at risk of failing in introductory programming courses at university. The framework was validated for two different courses with annual editions taken by higher education students ( N = 2 080) and was found to be highly accurate and robust against variation in course structures, teaching and learning styles, programming exercises and classification algorithms. By using interpretable machine learning techniques, the framework also provides insight into what aspects of practising programming skills promote or inhibit learning or have no or minor effect on the learning process. Findings showed that the framework was capable of predicting students’ future success already early on in the semester.