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National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 26(120), 2023

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2218274120

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Large-scale climate patterns offer preseasonal hints on the co-occurrence of heat wave and O <sub>3</sub> pollution in China

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Heat waves and air pollution extremes exert compounding effects on human health and food security and may worsen under future climate change. On the basis of reconstructed daily O 3 levels in China and meteorological reanalysis, we found that the interannual variability of the frequency of summertime co-occurrence of heat wave and O 3 pollution in China is regulated mainly by a combination of springtime warming in the western Pacific Ocean, western Indian Ocean, and Ross Sea. These sea surface temperature anomalies impose influences on precipitation, radiation, etc., to modulate the co-occurrence, which were also confirmed with coupled chemistry–climate numerical experiments. We thus built a multivariable regression model to predict co-occurrence a season in advance, and correlation coefficient could reach 0.81 ( P < 0.01) for the North China Plain. Our results provide useful information for the government to take actions in advance to mitigate damage from these synergistic costressors.