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Oxford University Press, European Heart Journal, Supplement_2(43), 2022

DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehac544.2256

Oxford University Press, European Journal of Preventive Cardiology, 1(30), p. 8-16, 2022

DOI: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwac176

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Including measures of chronic kidney disease to improve cardiovascular risk prediction by SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP

Journal article published in 2022 by Kunihiro Matsushita ORCID, Stephen Kaptoge ORCID, Yingying Sang, Steven Hj J. Hageman ORCID, Shoshana H. Ballew ORCID, Morgan E. Grams ORCID, Aditya Surapaneni, Luanluan Sun, Johan Arnlov, Milica Bozic, Hermann Brenner ORCID, Nigel J. Brunskill, Alex R. Chang, Brunskill Nj, Chang Ar and other authors.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Abstract Background The 2021 ESC guideline on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention qualitatively categorizes moderate and severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) as high and very-high CVD risk status regardless of other factors like age and does not include estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria in its algorithms, SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP, to predict CVD risk. Purpose To develop and validate an “Add-on” to incorporate CKD measures into these algorithms, using a validated approach. Methods In 3,054,840 participants from 34 datasets, we developed three Add-ons (eGFR only, eGFR + urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio [ACR] [the primary Add-on], and eGFR + dipstick proteinuria) for SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. We validated c-statistics and net reclassification improvement (NRI), accounting for competing risk of non-CVD death, in 5,995,067 participants from 33 different datasets. Results In the target population of SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP without diabetes, the CKD Add-on (eGFR only) and CKD Add-on (eGFR + ACR) improved c-statistic by 0.006 (95% CI 0.005–0.008) and 0.018 (0.012–0.024), respectively, for SCORE2 and 0.012 (0.009–0.015) and 0.023 (0.013–0.032), respectively, for SCORE2-OP. Similar results were seen when we included individuals with diabetes and tested the CKD Add-on (eGFR + dipstick). In 57,485 European participants with CKD, SCORE2 or SCORE2-OP with a CKD Add-on showed a significant NRI (e.g., 0.100 [0.062–0.138] for SCORE2) compared to the qualitative approach in the ESC guideline. Conclusion Our Add-ons with CKD measures improved CVD risk prediction beyond SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. This approach will help clinicians and patients with CKD refine risk prediction and further personalize preventive therapies for CVD. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): US National Kidney Foundation funding as well as US NIDDK