Published in

Wiley Open Access, Journal of the American Heart Association, 12(11), 2022

DOI: 10.1161/jaha.121.024045

Links

Tools

Export citation

Search in Google Scholar

Development and Validation of 3‐Year Atrial Fibrillation Prediction Models Using Electronic Health Record With or Without Standardized Electrocardiogram Diagnosis and a Performance Comparison Among Models

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

Full text: Download

Green circle
Preprint: archiving allowed
Green circle
Postprint: archiving allowed
Green circle
Published version: archiving allowed
Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

Background Improved prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may allow for earlier interventions for stroke prevention, as well as mortality and morbidity from other AF‐related complications. We developed a clinically feasible and accurate AF prediction model using electronic health records and computerized ECG interpretation. Methods and Results A total of 671 318 patients were screened from 3 tertiary hospitals. After careful exclusion of cases with missing values and a prior AF diagnosis, AF prediction models were developed from the derivation cohort of 25 584 patients without AF at baseline. In the internal/external validation cohort of 117 523 patients, the model using 6 clinical features and 5 ECG diagnoses showed the highest performance for 3‐year new‐onset AF prediction (C‐statistic, 0.796 [95% CI, 0.785–0.806]). A more simplified model using age, sex, and 5 ECG diagnoses (atrioventricular block, fusion beats, marked sinus arrhythmia, supraventricular premature complex, and wide QRS complex) had comparable predictive power (C‐statistic, 0.777 [95% CI, 0.766–0.788]). The simplified model showed a similar or better predictive performance than the previous models. In the subgroup analysis, the models performed relatively better in patients without risk factors. Specifically, the predictive power was lower in patients with heart failure or decreased renal function. Conclusions Although the 3‐year AF prediction model using both clinical and ECG variables showed the highest performance, the simplified model using age, sex, and 5 ECG diagnoses also had a comparable prediction power with broad applicability for incident AF.