Abstract Background The association between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung function and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remains controversial. We performed a meta-analysis to clarify this issue. Methods The PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. Cohort studies on COPD, lung function and risk of T2DM in adults were included. A random effects model was adopted to calculate the summary risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Dose-response analysis was conducted where possible. Results A total of 13 eligible cohort studies involving 307,335 incident T2DM cases and 7,683,784 individuals were included. The risk of T2DM was significantly higher in patients with COPD than those without COPD (RR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.16–1.34). Compared to the highest category of percentage forced vital capacity (FVC%), the lowest category of FVC% was associated with a higher risk of T2DM (RR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.33–1.53). Similarly, the summary RR of T2DM for the lowest versus highest category of percentage forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1%) was 1.49 (95% CI 1.39–1.60). Significant linear associations of FVC% and FEV1% with risk of T2DM were found (P_{non-linearity} > 0.05); the RR of T2DM was 0.88 (95% CI 0.82–0.95) and 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–0.94) per 10% increase in FVC% and FEV1%, respectively. There was a non-significant relationship between the FEV1/FVC ratio and the risk of T2DM. Conclusions Both COPD and impaired lung function, especially restricted ventilation dysfunction, could increase the risk of T2DM. However, these findings should be interpreted with caution due to the limited number of studies, and need to be validated by future studies.